Stuttgart vs RB Leipzig: Match Preview and Prediction

January 15, 2025. 21:30. Stuttgart. MHP Arena.
Bundesliga 2024-25. Matchday 17

Suspended: Amadou Aydara (Mainz)

Injured: Dan-Axel Zagadou, Maximilian Mittelstädt, Luka Raimund, Justin Diehl, El-Bilal Touré – Castello Lukeba, Benjamin Henrichs, Assan Ouédraogo, Yusuf Poulsen

Doubtful: Xaver Schlager (RB Leipzig)

Stuttgart

The Swabians faced a disgraceful 1:5 defeat to Red Star Belgrade in the Champions League after the international break in November. However, they managed to progress to the quarter-finals of the DFB-Pokal, making up for their Champions League misfortunes by defeating Young Boys at home by the same scoreline, and they also went on an impressive four-match unbeaten streak in the Bundesliga, accumulating ten points in that span. Sebastian Hoeneß's team has celebrated victories against Bochum, Union, and Heidenheim, and drew away with Werder, their neighbor in the standings.

It seemed that Stuttgart would extend its unbeaten run before the winter break, but against all expectations, the Swabians somehow lost at home to modest St. Pauli, conceding a narrow 0:1 defeat, marking the first time since March 2023 that they failed to score at home. The new calendar year started with a hard-fought 1:0 away victory over Augsburg. The lone goal came in the middle of the second half from Deniz Undav, who made his return from injury after being sidelined since early November. Thanks to this win, Stuttgart climbed to 7th place in the Bundesliga table, overtaking Werder and both Borussia teams, although they still risk finishing the first half of the season outside the European competition spots.

RB Leipzig

The "Red Bulls" have had a tumultuous Champions League campaign this season, ending with zero points after six matches, which means no prospects of continuing in the tournament. However, Marco Rose's side still has a chance to win the DFB-Pokal and traditionally finish in the top four to secure another Champions League berth for the next season. In the cup quarter-finals, Leipzig will host Wolfsburg at home in late February, while in the league, the Red Bulls currently share 3rd and 4th places with Eintracht, trailing the Eagles due to a poorer goal difference. They are five points behind Bayer and nine behind Bayern, but Rose's team also holds a slight lead over Mainz, Freiburg, and, of course, Stuttgart.

In five Bundesliga matches before the New Year, RB Leipzig recorded three defeats, conceding an avalanche of goals in each loss: 3:4 to Hoffenheim, 1:5 at home to Wolfsburg, and another 1:5 in Munich against Bayern before the winter pause. Sandwiched between these defeats, the Bulls secured a solid win over Holstein and managed to defeat Eintracht at home for the second time in a few weeks. The new calendar year also began positively for Rose's squad, achieving a convincing 4:2 victory over Werder, who has been one of the main surprises of the first half of the season alongside Mainz. Xavi Simons starred with a brace against the Musicians, marking his return after a serious injury that kept him out for several months. Benjamin Šeško and Christoph Baumgartner also got on the scoresheet.

Stuttgart vs Leipzig: Expected Line-ups

Stuttgart braces itself for the absence of previously injured Dan-Axel Zagadou, Luka Raimund, El-Bilal Touré, and Justin Diehl. After the match in Augsburg, they will also miss key left-back Maximilian Mittelstädt, who will be replaced by Dutchman Ramon Hendriks. Deniz Undav could also return to the starting XI. For Leipzig, the visitors will be without Castello Lukeba, Benjamin Henrichs, Assan Ouédraogo, and Yusuf Poulsen due to injury, while Amadou Aydara is suspended. The participation of midfielder Xaver Schlager remains doubtful due to knee issues.

Stuttgart vs Leipzig: Author's Prediction

Stuttgart has only won half of its home matches this season – four out of eight. Two games have ended in draws, and they have suffered narrow defeats twice – 2:3 to Eintracht and 0:1 to St. Pauli. RB Leipzig has lost three of its last four away matches, but they also own four away victories this season. The last encounter between these rivals in Stuttgart last January ended in a resounding 5:2 victory for the Red Bulls. It was Stuttgart's first-ever victory over Leipzig in Bundesliga history. Currently, the Swabians are seen as favorites, but there are notable doubts about their ability to clinch victory this time. Nonetheless, Leipzig's chances of winning are undoubtedly not higher. Personally, I find a draw to be the most likely outcome, something like 2:2.