Stuttgart – Hamburg: Prediction and Match Preview

April 12, 2026. 6:30 PM. Stuttgart. MHP Arena.

Bundesliga 2025-26. Round 29.

Where to watch: Setanta Sports

Disqualified: Atakan Karazor – Miro Muheim

Injured: Luka Vuskovic, Nicolas Capaldo, Albert Sambi Lokonga, Alexander Nübel-Lelezeit, Jean-Luc Dompe, Youssuf Poulsen (all – Hamburg)

Stuttgart

Sebastian Hoeness' team was eliminated from the Europa League before the international break, losing both matches to Portuguese Porto in the round of 16 – 1:2 at home and 0:2 away. However, they also went on a six-match unbeaten run in the Bundesliga, cementing their place in the top four and boosting their chances of qualifying for next season's Champions League.

During that run, the Swabians dropped points away against Heidenheim (3-3) and Mainz (2-2), both teams from the bottom half of the table. Nevertheless, they managed four wins. Three of those came at home: 3-1 against Cologne, 4-0 against Wolfsburg and 1-0 against Leipzig, a direct rival in the race for a Champions League spot. The other win came away in the match before the break, a thrilling 5-2 win over Augsburg.

However, after a two-week break, Stuttgart's run ended in disappointment. Last weekend, Borussia Dortmund visited the MHP Arena, a team that seemed to have almost nothing left to play for in the standings. The hosts did not deserve to lose, but they needed to make better use of their chances. And just when it seemed like the game would end 0-0, the Bees struck a powerful blow, scoring twice in injury time in the 90+4 and 90+6 minutes. The defeat dropped Stuttgart to fourth place, overtaking Leipzig on goal difference, although they still have a three-point lead over Hoffenheim. The team from the Village failed to win their match in this round, which gave the Swabians extra motivation for the next match.

Hamburg

Meanwhile, the Red Shorts are now focused on more mundane goals. After a long break, their main priority is to secure a place in the top division. In the summer, they will be able to work on strengthening their squad and set themselves more ambitious goals for the new season. With six rounds remaining in the championship, Merlin Polzin's team is 10 points clear of the automatic relegation zone and six points ahead of St. Pauli, who are in 16th place (the play-off place for survival in the Bundesliga).

However, Hamburg's points accumulation has noticeably decreased recently, even if their overall performance has not been too bad. In mid-February, the "red shorts" won two consecutive victories for the first time this season - 2-0 away at Heidenheim and 3-2 at home against Union Berlin. But since then, in seven rounds, Merlin Polzin's team has only won once, a 2-1 comeback away at Wolfsburg, who are fighting for survival and are under real threat of direct relegation.

Before that, Hamburg drew with Mainz and then suffered two consecutive home defeats, narrowly losing to Leipzig (1-2) and Bayer Leverkusen (0-1) in a postponed match. In the two rounds before the international break, they had one point – a home draw with Cologne (1-1) – and then a dramatic 2-3 defeat to Dortmund. There, despite the complete advantage of the home team, Merlin Polzin's team scored twice, creating a solid lead, but in the end they were unable to hold on to their lead. And last weekend, Hamburg shared the victory at home with Augsburg – 1:1.

Stuttgart – Hamburg: Expected lineups

Stuttgart – Hamburg: Author's prediction

In the first leg, Stuttgart had the advantage in the game and finished the game with a player more, but conceded a goal at the end of injury time, losing 1:2. But in this home match against Hamburg, I believe that Sebastian Hoeness' team will not let the points slip away. The hosts are the clear favorites here (Hamburg also has some noticeable problems with the squad), and they should justify this status. So no fancy predictions - Stuttgart win, and probably not by a minimum margin. In addition, I expect one or two more goals from Deniz Undav, the Bundesliga's top scorer from Germany.