Senegal vs Morocco: Match Preview and Prediction

January 18, 2026. 9:00 p.m. Rabat. Prince Moulay Abdellah Stadium.
African Cup of Nations – 2025. Final.

Senegal – Morocco

Where to watch: MEGOGO

Rabat and Casablanca, Marrakech and Agadir – and many other places too – were eagerly awaiting the breakthrough from the Moroccan national team. The “Lions of the Atlas” are approaching triumph at the African Cup of Nations for the first time in 50 years, starting in 1976. Walid Regraghi’s team has only one obstacle left: they have already defeated the powerful Nigeria, and now they are up against a comprehensively balanced, fiercely competitive Senegal. Even without a perfect squad, the Lions of Teranga remain a serious threat – this is their third final in the last four tournaments.

Senegal vs Morocco: Betting Odds

Bookmakers are leaning towards the nominal guests but de facto hosts to win, although Morocco entered AFCON 2025 as the main favourites. The odds for a win for Regraghi in normal time are currently around 2.30 at GGBET, a draw is around 3.00, and a win for Senegal is around 3.90. Interestingly, analysts are not expecting goals from either side, despite each team’s strong attacking forces, offering odds of around 2.35 for “both teams to score” (which is in line with the odds for a win for the Lions of Atlas). There is a logic to this: in the two semi-finals, only one goal was scored in regular time.

Senegal

In essence, the Lions of Teranga face a key challenge: to break through Morocco’s defence. In six group stage matches and the play-offs, the Moroccans have only missed five (!) shots on target against Yacine Bounou, who has kept a clean sheet five times! Only two of those five were from outside the penalty area, and their only miss came from a penalty against Mali – so what key will Senegal coach Pape Thiau find to open this vault? If they do – perhaps through Sadio Mane’s dribbling, Illimane Ndiaye’s timing, Nicholas Jackson’s aggression or Idrissa Gueye’s devastating attacks from distance (avoiding the reliance on transitions, counter-attacks and set pieces) – a second continental title could be within reach. The Lions of Teranga have scored in every game at AFCON 2025 so far, but they have a prime example of how Morocco have neutralized Nigeria’s attack, the team with the highest number of shots on target at the tournament.

On the other hand, the focus on Senegal’s attack means highlighting Sadio Mane, whose winning goal against Egypt was his 20th in an AFCON final and his fifth of this edition. Many fail to notice that Senegal have conceded only twice (to Cedric Bakambu in the group stages and early in the matches against Sudan – although that goal, unlike DR Congo’s goal, did not affect the outcome). Both matches were played in open play, with no set pieces. Instead, Senegal have thrived in defending free kicks and corners, with Edouard Mendy coming out on top when needed. In the semi-final against Egypt, Mendy faced little action – the Lions of Teranga dominated possession and territory, controlling the ball 70% of the time in the first half. The Egyptians were holed up in their bunkers, struggling to find positions – a tactic coach Hossam Hassan risked collapsing at any moment. The Pharaohs showed more spark after the break, but Mane's goal in the final ten minutes of regulation denied them any chance of avenging their penalty shootout defeat in the 2021 AFCON final (denying the fans extra time, which was too slow - and perhaps another shootout).

However, Morocco is no Egypt, who struggled in the knockout stages, beating Benin only in extra time and enduring a tough match against Ivory Coast - so Senegal are unlikely to have a clear advantage in the final. While Pape Thiau's men felt at home in Tangier during their group and play-off games, Rabat is making new adjustments to the pitch and the pressure from the fans. Are the Lions of Teranga ready, especially against arguably the most organised and balanced team in the tournament? It's a real question worth more than just a trophy.

Morocco

As Senegal adapt to Rabat, Walid Regraghi's men have consistently called the stadium home, drawing more than 60,000 fans per game over six games, although the 70,000-capacity stadium has yet to see a full house or overflowing aisles. That could change now, with even a partial crowd pushing the Atlas Lions forward. This was evident in their play-off victories over Cameroon and Nigeria. It may seem strange, but the semi-final against the Nigerians, despite a goalless 120 minutes, highlighted why Morocco are the leaders. Regraghi's team completely destroyed the Super Eagles' attack. Only two shots in the entire match, one on Bounou's goal - a meager number for a team that scored 14 goals in five games, including 6-0 routs of Mozambique and Algeria! Amazingly, the Atlas Lions swallowed Victor Osimhen, Ademola Lookman and Akor Adams without hesitation. The Nigerian media criticized the referees' decisions - no, this is just typical home refereeing. And who prevented Nigeria from taking a better penalty? Why did newcomer Alex Iwobi perform worse than showman Hamza Igamane? Bruno Onyemaechi succumbed to pressure, throwing the ball at random - Bounou, diving to one side, still reacted with his hand. Then Youssef En-Nesiri, who was benched due to the form of Ayoub El-Kaabi, sealed Morocco's place in the 2025 AFCON finals.

The unfairness of the semi-final? Morocco deserved to win in the main order. First half: 6-1 shots (1-1 on target), with the advantage of possession. Second half: 5-1 shots (2-0 on target), Nigeria in possession in defense. Extra time: 5-0 shots (2-0 on target) - thanks to xG, the Moroccans scored more than one goal, but Nigerian goalkeeper Stanley Nwabali proved why he is the Super Eagles' best choice in place of Francis Uzoho. The match also ended the scoring streak of Brahim Diaz - the best sniper of AFCON 2025! The Real Madrid midfielder left all previous fields with a goal, but went 107 minutes without a major game against the West Africans. They managed the penalty shootout without him, thanks to the heroism of Boon. The Al-Hilal goalkeeper saved four of seven penalties in the shootout (two of three against Spain at the 2022 World Cup, two of four at this AFCON).

It is now fair to say that the final will depend partly on the duel of the goalkeepers, rather than on the attacks or the midfield trios, or Senegal's plans against wing pairings such as Hakimi-Diaz and Mazraoui-Abde (probably). Bounou vs. Mendy – not exactly a Buffon-Casillas story, but still fascinating to watch.

Senegal vs. Morocco: Expected Lineups

Perhaps Senegal's most unlucky player is captain Kalidou Koulibaly. The experienced centre-back missed the 2019 AFCON final through suspension and is now out again after an unnecessary yellow card against Egypt and an injury. Mamadou Sarr replaces him in the centre of defence alongside Niahate. Another absentee for Pape Thiau is the suspended striker Habib Diarra, leaving no alternative to Nicholas Jackson (who has scored three goals for Senegal, second only to Mane's five of his 12). Morocco remain solid, with midfielder Unahi and defender Saiss supporting the bench alongside Sofiane Amrabat; The starting line-up is set, and Regragh has options to upgrade in the form of Ighamane, Ben Seghir, Hamseddine Talbi, Ahommas and Salah-Eddine – their bench alone boasts more depth than the starting line-ups of some African teams.

Senegal v Morocco: Author's prediction

In finals like this, every little thing can tip the scales. Adaptation to the pitch, fewer goals conceded, a fully fit and united squad – no key injuries, extra recovery time or smoother logistics, plus home support and refereeing skills. Putting it all together, Morocco come out on top – not overwhelmingly, but enough to win the Africa Cup of Nations in 50 years. Anything is possible – Mane could repeat his semi-final magic, or Bounou could flick the ball in from a cross (which would work “both teams to score”). But if Morocco's defense can contain Nigeria's attack, expect a repeat against Senegal. The odds of "Morocco" progressing are slim, so consider taking a chance on a narrow victory for the hosts in regulation time (or count on under two goals).