Senegal – Egypt. Prediction and Match Preview

January 14, 2026. 19:00. Tangier. Ibn Battuta Stadium.
African Cup of Nations – 2025. Semi-final.

Senegal – Egypt

Where to watch: MEGOGO

The first semi-final of the 2025 AFCON is not just a repeat of the epic final of 2021, where the Egyptians only managed to defeat Morocco (2:1) in regular play-off time, while drawing 0:0 after 120 minutes with Ivory Coast, Cameroon and Senegal before winning on penalties. Rather, it is a rematch between Mohamed Salah, nearing the end of his stellar career (he could still play in Saudi Arabia, of course) and hoping to finally win a continental trophy, and his former Liverpool teammate, also 33-year-old Sadio Mane, who already has an African Cup of Nations title. Salah has experienced and star-studded support in Omar Marmoush and wildcard Emam Ashour, while Mane's attacking partners are generally of slightly higher quality. Furthermore, the Lions of Teranga are already used to playing at the 75,000-capacity Tangier stadium, although the Grand de Tangier (another name for the arena) will now host the grand semi-final: both teams have shown similar results, winning four out of five matches in the tournament, although these victories have been achieved in different ways (sometimes with a slight touch of surprise).

Senegal vs. Egypt: betting odds

Senegal's four wins in Tangier, coupled with their solid performances, have likely influenced the bookmakers' odds: there is a slight favoritism towards the nominal hosts. The victory of Pape Thiau's team at GGBET is estimated at 2.12 (a little more than even), a draw - about three, and the odds for the victory of the "Pharaohs" have risen above four (about 4.14 - possibly even higher).

Senegal

Let's recall that in the group stage, the "Lions of Teranga" won two big victories and a draw against DR Congo (whether to consider that 1:1 score as a lost victory is a debatable question), and then in the 1/8 finals they sensationally lost to modest Sudan after just five minutes, although they responded with three goals (and could have scored five or six). Even in the quarter-finals against Mali - a team that ranks 10th in the domestic ranking of Africa - Pape Thiau's team won only a minimal victory, if you look only at the scoreboard. Although this 1-0 can be viewed from different perspectives. Firstly, if it were not for Mali goalkeeper Gigi Diarra, the score would have been higher. On the other hand, the goal conceded in the first half was the result of a technical error by Diarra, who failed to intercept a cross from the left - the ball slipped under his arm as he bent awkwardly, and Illiman Ndiaye easily scored it into the goal. Of course, Diarra then saved everything he could - including some truly spectacular saves (and a one-on-one from Pathé Cisse) - but Mali spent the entire second half with ten goals (captain Yves Bissouma let the team down with a second yellow card). Accordingly, one of Senegal's problems - perhaps the only one - is that the team underestimates the number of goals and sometimes concedes, despite Edouard Mendy in goal. Although overall Pape Thiau can be satisfied with his defense – only two goals conceded (against the Congolese – veteran Cedric Bakambu; against Sudan – an accurate shot) and three clean sheets. And 11 goals scored is also a very respectable figure. Most importantly, the “Lions of Teranga” have an organized game. In the continental ranking, Senegal is second only to Morocco – and if Pape Thiau and his team not only reach the third AFCON final in the last four years, but also win it, they will undoubtedly become the best team in Africa (not only de facto, but also de jure).

Egypt

The most titled African team – the Egyptians have not only won the AFCON seven times, but are also the only ones to score a “hat-trick” – has proven themselves to be the most unpredictable team. The Pharaohs, unlike Senegal, went through the group stage much less convincingly (0:0 against Angola – even with rotation, the winning goal against Zimbabwe in injury time and against South Africa from a penalty). In the 1/8 finals against Benin, it even went to extra time – the desire to hold on to the lead almost clashed with Hossam Hassan’s men (Benin failed to win – perhaps only on penalties – but they definitely shook the nerves of the Pharaohs). Then, of course, Egypt’s class and dependence on set pieces showed themselves – but even against this background it was hard to believe that Salah and Marmouche could withstand the young and energetic Ivorians – unexpected gifts, but still the reigning AFCON champions.

But Egypt did it! And without extra time, without goals in added time, penalties or VAR assistance, without red cards for the opponent! Even after conceding twice! Sometimes such surprises add a certain charm to football. Although Ivory Coast, strangely enough, turned out to be defenseless at key moments. The Egyptians quickly took the lead: Franck Kessie lost a battle in the central zone, Emam Ashour knocked out Odilon Kossouno's pass after he unsuccessfully advanced into midfield, his partner Evan Ndika could not cover Omar Marmouch, and goalkeeper Yahya Fofana did not save - the decisive goal. Or from a set piece: Salah's cross, Mamadou Sangare lost the duel, Rami Rabia's header flew into the far corner on a strange trajectory, and Fofana's jump did not help. Although Emerse Fae's players tried to turn the situation around - the Ivorians' pressure and set pieces partially worked: Ahmed Fatouh's own goal before the break, and Gilas Doue's shot in the second half (a corner from Diallo and a won battle). But when it comes to quality and class, Egypt's third goal demonstrated it: how Marmouch created space for Emam Ashour, how Ashour made a precise pass into the penalty area, and Salah's one-touch goal - considering the score was 3-1 at the start of the second half, Egypt held on.

Senegal vs. Egypt: Expected Lineups

 

The Lions of Teranga seem to have no problems with injuries, but now Pape Thiau may face a real headache - there is a dilemma in choosing: Jacobs or Diouf at left-back, Nicholas Jackson or Habib Diallo up top. The Bayern striker could probably be a super substitute - against Mali they managed it thanks to the efforts of Mane, Gea (both) and Ndiaye - but against Egypt's three central defenders, it might make sense to release Nicholas in the starting lineup. And then there's Sadio Mane - he already has three assists (the second best result at AFCON-2025), but he wants more. Only left-back Mohamed Hamdi is out of the Egypt squad, but Mo Salah will be hoping to join the race for the Golden Boot after his 1+1 result (and the winning goal against the Ivorians) – four goals in five games. But if he scores twice more, Salah will become Egypt’s all-time top scorer at the Africa Cup of Nations (one goal will equal him with legend Hassan El-Shazly – the Egyptian icon has 12 goals and three AFCON bronze medals).

Senegal vs. Egypt: Author’s Prediction

Despite the Pharaohs’ desire to take revenge in Senegal at AFCON-2021 and Salah’s desire to score – for the sake of records and the long-awaited title – the Lions of Teranga look more confident. And the head-to-head record – Senegal have won three of their last five meetings, conceding just one goal – should be more of a concern for Hossam Hassan. While the match is expected to be a tense affair, and Egypt's coach is likely to try to draw their opponents into a fierce battle on the pitch, focusing on disrupting Senegal's attacks rather than their own possession – with Ashour, Salah and Marmoush in the mix – the Lions of Teranga look more reliable. Egypt have vulnerabilities that Senegal can exploit (such as set pieces), and with Edouard Mendy in goal, that could be enough for the West Africans to secure a narrow victory.