Mexico vs England: Preview and Prediction

July 6. 03:00. Mexico City. Azteca Stadium
World Cup. Round of 16

Mexico - England

Where to watch: MEGOGO

Shown: none
Injured: Reece James, Jarrell Cuanza (both questionable)

Mexico vs. England: bookmaker odds

The build-up to this match has been a subject of much speculation even before it started. FIFA was seriously considering postponing the match. Earlier reports indicated weather problems. However, The Athletic, citing sources close to the decision, said the main concern was the safety of fans on both sides.

Talk of a possible postponement gained momentum after four Mexican fans died while celebrating their team's victory over Ecuador in the round of 32. Organizers have made safety a top priority to prevent a repeat of the incident. 15,000 officers were deployed for security at that previous game.

Despite the debate, the match will go ahead as scheduled.

Mexico

Mexico are looking to maintain their strong position at the 2026 World Cup. Javier Aguirre's team have won all four of their games, keeping a clean sheet in each.

The match against England comes at a lucky venue for the hosts. They played all three matches here — against South Africa, the Czech Republic and Ecuador — extending the Azteca's unbeaten run at World Cups to 10 games (8 wins, 2 draws).

In total, Mexico played 89 official matches at this stadium and lost only twice, both times in World Cup qualifying: a 1–2 defeat to Costa Rica in June 2001 and another defeat to Honduras in September 2013. In each case, they led at half-time before losing. Since then, they have played 22 more official games there without losing: 16 wins and 6 draws.

Only two of those 22 games have been against teams ranked in FIFA's top 20 at the time - the United States (0-0 in March 2022) and Costa Rica (2-0 in March 2017). Only four of those games have been against teams ranked in the top 30, while 15 have been against teams outside the top 50.

England

England have less fond memories of the stadium. This is their first visit in 40 years. The last time was at the 1986 World Cup, when they lost to Argentina in a match that will forever be associated with Diego Maradona's "Hand of God".

England's victory over DR Congo in the last 32 left mixed feelings. Thomas Tuchel's team looked down on the ground at the start. They had a fair amount of possession in the opening 22 minutes but failed to score a single shot. The visitors took their only chance to take the lead.

The picture changed after the break. England had eight attempts in the final 26 minutes of the first half, but only brilliant passes from Lionel Mpasi allowed Congo to take the lead.

Harry Kane proved decisive again, scoring his 12th and 13th goals of the World Cup to secure a 2-1 comeback. Kane now has 84 goals for England. He has shouldered a significant share of the scoring load at major tournaments since 2018, scoring 20 of England's 52 goals - 38.5 per cent. Jude Bellingham is five behind.

Mexico v England: Predicted Line-ups

Declan Rice left the field late in the match against DR Congo but appears to have avoided injury, with Tuchel replacing him with a cramp.

Rice covered for the right-back role in that match after injuries to Jarrell Quans (ankle) and Reece James (hamstring). James has reassured fans of his fitness but is unlikely to return in time for the last 16.

The main questions surrounding Tuchel's selection lie on the flanks. Bukayo Saka and Anthony Gordon are vying for a starting place. Gordon is already leading the England team, having scored at least two goals from the bench.

Mexico, for their part, enter the game with a full squad without any new problems.

Mexico vs England: Author's prediction

Fitness coach and best-selling author Steve Magness recently outlined the additional challenges England could face at altitude. At around 7,000 feet (2,114 m), VO2max can drop by around 10-13 percent. Overall performance drops by 5-6 percent depending on the duration of the exercise.

Magness adds that total distance covered and sprinting are significantly reduced - by 3-9 percent in the former case, by 10-15 percent in the latter. The higher the altitude, the greater the effect. The worse the acclimatization, the greater the problems.

This is another reason to expect few goals. England are clearly at a higher level, but Mexico at home, on their favourite pitch and pitch, will be a serious test.

My prediction: England avoid defeat in 90 minutes + under 3.5 goals.