Mali – Senegal. Prediction and Match Preview

January 9, 2026. 18:00. Tangier. Ibn Battuta Stadium.
African Cup of Nations – 2025. Round of 16.

Mali – Senegal

Where to watch: MEGOGO

The first quarter-final of the 2025 African Cup of Nations unfolds as a West African derby in Tangier. Mali and Senegal will fight for a place in the semi-finals after the Eagles impressively eliminated Tunisia on penalties, while the Lions of Teranga, somewhat unexpectedly but ultimately deservedly, made a comeback against Sudan. Both teams went through the group stage unbeaten, and the winner of this clash will face either Egypt (featuring Mohamed Salah and Omar Marmouche) or Ivory Coast (where young stars Amad Diallo and Yann Genandum have already eclipsed Franck Kessier) in the semi-finals on January 14.

Mali vs. Senegal: Betting Odds

The bookmakers consider the Lions of Teranga to be the clear favorites of the match: on the GGBET line, the odds for a Senegal win are 1.63, a draw is just over 3.5, and a Mali win is over 6.50!

Mali

Four draws in four matches – throughout the entire group stage and in regular time against Tunisia – isn't that an achievement for Tom Senfier's men? The fact that the Eagles never lost is commendable (at least against Morocco, but certainly not against Comoros), especially given the context of the Tunisia match. The first 25 minutes were tense, with few chances. Then defender Yoann Coulibaly came up from behind on Burnley midfielder Hannibal Mejbri (although he was used to this in the Premier League, having already returned to play an hour against Manchester United). After the straight red card, the script of the match changed dramatically: Tunisia took control of the ball (possession around 70% in the first half, over 70% after the break and over 75% in extra time), while the Malians pressed the ball, patiently and painfully in their own half. Mali held on until the 88th minute, when Elias Saad crossed to the edge of the penalty area and Firas Chaouat headed it into the corner – 1-0! But the most interesting thing: with a one-man advantage and less than ten minutes left (including added time) to either increase the lead or hold the score, Tunisia conceded! It was both comical and dramatic – the Malians tried to increase the pressure, the Tunisian defender handled the ball, VAR recorded it, and Lassine Sinayoko converted the penalty to beat Ahmed Damen – an impressive 1-1!

In any case, Tunisia still had extra time with a numerical advantage to break their opponent. In the end, only one (!) shot on the goalpost of Gigi Diarra! And this against a team that had spent a total of seventy minutes in the minority in regular time! So the game went to a penalty shootout, where Diarra made two saves and El Bilal Toure scored the decisive goal – 3-2! A superhuman victory for Tom Senfier's men, who are now morally buoyant, recovered and eager to continue their fairytale in the quarter-finals, finally achieving their first victory of the tournament in regular time. However, there is one big and important caveat: Mali's last three quarter-finals have also ended in draws after regular time (including the drama with Côte d'Ivoire at the previous AFCON 2023, when Simon Adingra surprisingly equalized in the 90th minute and Oumar Diakite scored the winning goal in the 120th minute – after that rebound, the hosts went on to win the title!). Mali have not reached the semi-finals since 2013, when they were crushed by Nigeria (1-4 – the Super Eagles later won the tournament), but they beat Ghana in the third-place match, as they did the year before. However, the Africa Cup of Nations itself remains an unfulfilled dream for Mali – perhaps until a new generation of Malian talent emerges.

Senegal

Having confidently navigated the group stage – with two big wins over Benin and Botswana (3-0 each) and a masterful 1-1 win over DR Congo – Senegal topped their group and faced Sudan, who sensationally advanced to the play-offs. Moreover, one of the best teams, who took third place at AFCON 2025, started the 1/8 finals just as sensationally, scoring an early goal – in the first ten minutes, winger Amir Abdallah (who played in Australia and… Estonia in recent years) curled it into the far corner, with such precision that even Edouard Mendy could not achieve! However, everything quickly returned to normal: closer to the half-hour mark, Pape Geiye scored no less impressively, thanks to a pass from Sadio Mane, and in added time, the Villarreal midfielder completed his double in a similar way, this time thanks to a pass from Nicholas Jackson. After the break, Mane scored twice with an assist, and 17-year-old Ibrahim Mbaye scored his debut goal for the Lions of Teranga in official matches (last year the PSG winger moved from the French youth team to the main team - perhaps he made a good choice).

But what is even more interesting is that Senegal spent the second half in an economical mode: if before the break coach Pape Thiau was satisfied with the game of his team (over 70% possession, ten shots, eight on target - all this is about 1.5 goals according to xG indicators), then in the second half the Senegalese boss could have said a few words. Sudan was close to another quick goal (Abdallah could have scored a double!) - Mendy made a great save, and at the other end of the field the Senegalese wasted several chances (Boulaï Dia comically wasted his). Although they seemed to control both the ball and the game. On the other hand, Senegal has a significant reserve of strength and self-confidence: the Lions of Teranga's unbeaten streak at AFCON reached 15 matches (10 wins and 5 draws), including the 1/8 finals at the last AFCON 2023 - then, like Mali, they lost to Côte d'Ivoire, but not in extra time, but in a penalty shootout (and Franck Kessier saved Côte d'Ivoire from defeat in regular time, scoring a penalty in the 86th minute). But now the Senegalese national team is counting on itself and its own strength - to win the second continental title in history. Or at least reach the final of the African Cup of Nations for the third time in four years.

Mali – Senegal: Predicted Lineups

In the case of Mali, of course, the suspended Yoann Coulibaly will not take the field (besides Amadou Haidara is serving his second match suspension), while his namesake Lassana is also at risk of missing the game due to an injury sustained in the game against Tunisia. Meanwhile, Senegal have a fully fit squad – captain Kalidou Koulibaly, who has served his suspension, is likely to start in the centre of defence alongside Moussa Niahate. And Iliman Ndiaye, who also missed the game against Sudan, will return to the attacking group, forming a trio of strikers with Sadio Mane and Nicholas Jackson.

Mali vs Senegal: Author's prediction

The Eagles' hopes of making history – the team is again three wins away from their first continental title – still have a high chance of being dashed by harsh reality. Mali have not beaten Senegal in their last ten (!) matches in all competitions – and it is still unclear what Tom Senfier's team can use to pull off a sensational comeback. In theory, Mali could have benefited from Senegal's red card – preferably early in the first half with the score at nil – but the Lions of Teranga are unlikely to give the nominal hosts such an opportunity. Senegal's excellent attack is quite capable of seeing the match through – you can back Senegal with a -1 handicap to increase the odds to 2.24 (the 2.09 odds on Senegal's individual total over 1.5 goals also look good, but Mali will first need to play more proactively, and so far it is clear that the Saint-Félix team will try to get ahead of their opponents, relying on transitions, counterattacks and set pieces).