Lithuania vs Netherlands: Prediction and Match Preview

September 7, 2025. 19:00. Lithuania. Kaunas. Darius and Girenas Stadiums.
Qualifying matches for the 2026 FIFA World Cup. Group G. Round 6

Lithuania vs. Netherlands

Disqualified: Edgaras Utkus (Lithuania)

Injured: Dominikas Barauskas, Kipras Kazukolovas, Armandas Kutsis, Manfredas Ruzgis – Jeremy Frimpong

Lithuania

The Lithuanians last won an official match in March last year, beating Gibraltar twice with the same score of 1-0 in the play-offs to stay in League C of the UEFA Nations League. As for the qualifying games, their last victory came on October 14, 2023, when the "tricolors" defeated Bulgaria in Sofia. Lithuania's last World Cup qualifying win was also against Bulgaria, this time at home in October 2021.

Edgaras Jankauskas' team are almost certain to finish winless in the current qualifying round and could theoretically finish bottom of the group, although the odds are slim. They started with a narrow defeat in Warsaw to Poland, but showed resilience at home against Finland a few days later, coming from 0-2 down to draw 2-2 thanks to goals from Kutsis and Gineitis. The next two matches offered the chance for one or even two wins, but both against Malta ended in draws: 0-0 away in early June and 1-1 recently in Kaunas. VAR and the referee helped the hosts avoid defeat, first sending off a Maltese player and then awarding a controversial penalty, which Gidas Gineitis converted to equalise.

Netherlands

The Orange have played three qualifying matches and are already top of the group, ahead of Poland and Finland on goal difference and with a game in hand. After their second match in September, the Dutch could go even further ahead if their opponents draw in their head-to-head matches. However, Ronald Koeman's side are in no danger of losing top spot, as their biggest problem is internal, namely how effectively they convert chances.

The Netherlands started their campaign with a 2-0 win over Finland in Helsinki thanks to goals from Depay and Dumfries, before following up with a convincing 8-0 thrashing of Malta at home (doubles from Depay and Malen, Van de Veen's debut goal, and goals from Van Dijk, Simons and Lang). Most recently, they somehow managed to draw with Poland at home. I noted in the preview that the odds for the Netherlands to win were surprisingly low, and that a positive handicap on Poland might be a sensible bet, but I didn't expect a draw. Koeman's team dominated the game, creating several great chances, but only scored once from set pieces and defensive errors - Dumfries scored. The game seemed headed for a narrow victory for the Netherlands until Mette Cash fired a sharp shot from a rebound into the near corner in the 80th minute, making it 1-1.

Lithuania vs. Netherlands: Expected Lineups

Lithuania vs. Netherlands: Author's Prediction

This will be the first ever match between Lithuania and the Netherlands where the favorites are clear. The main question is the margin of victory and whether the underdogs can avoid a dry match. Firstly, I suspect it will be a controlled victory by a margin of 2-3 goals, allowing the Orange to secure points without overexerting their stars. Regarding the second, there are doubts, considering that Lithuania did not often score goals against much stronger opponents.