Germany vs Netherlands: Match Preview and Predictions

October 14, 2024. 21:45. Munich. "Allianz Arena"
Nations League. League A. Group 3. Matchday 4

Where to watch: MEGOGO, Volia TV

Injuries: Kai Havertz, Jamal Musiala, Marc-André ter Stegen - Nathan Aké, Jurriën Timber, Frenkie de Jong, Teun Koopmeiners, Yerdi Schouten, Joey Veerman

Suspended: Virgil van Dijk (Netherlands)

On Monday evening, a UEFA Nations League clash will take place in Munich, featuring the national teams of Germany and the Netherlands. Recently, due to reforms in national team fixtures, these two sides have been meeting regularly – and just as regularly exchanging goals. The last six matches (since 2018) of the Germany-Netherlands derby have invariably ended with both teams scoring. In their last encounter in September, the result was a 2:2 draw. There is no doubt that we can expect another thrilling match with over 2.5 goals scored, and both nets breached.

Germany

The situation in Group 3 of League A, where Germany and the Netherlands compete, has been fairly clear since the draw. Hungary and Bosnia are merely there to provide support for the favorites, even if they occasionally take points from them. It is these two top teams that will progress to the quarter-finals, so their meetings urge us to savor the skills on display. However, if we recall that the Nations League was largely conceived as a replacement for friendly matches, everything aligns: one has replaced the other, yet the essence remains unchanged.

A few days ago, the German national team comfortably defeated Bosnia on their home turf thanks to a double from Deniz Undav – 2:1. The Stuttgart player also scored against the Netherlands in the September match, bringing his tally to two consecutive matches with goals for the national team. (Before the game against Bosnia, Undav gave a lengthy interview discussing his life, notably explaining why he isn't particularly interested in luxury items. A video of Deniz arriving at the national camp with a garbage bag instead of a designer suitcase quickly went viral.)

Both of Undav's goals came in the first half, after a slight early confusion, as the Germans established their form and took control of the match. Nagelsmann stressed this point: "We could have scored more, and even after conceding to Džeko, we remained in control." Two more goals from the visitors were ruled out following video review. Overall, the Bundestim have no issues ahead of their encounter with the Dutch. By the way, the win in Zenica was only the second away victory for the German team in the Nations League. At home, however, they have only lost once in the tournament, surprisingly falling to Hungary in September 2022. But in the two years since, the Germans avenged that defeat by thrashing the descendants of "arančhapa" 5:0.

Netherlands

Things are not as rosy for Ronald Koeman's side. On the 11th, they drew 1:1 in Budapest, equalizing late in the game through Denzel Dumfries. The "Oranje" managed to do this while playing with a man down, as Virgil van Dijk was sent off in the 79th minute, and he will miss the upcoming match in Munich. This marked their second consecutive draw, but it means little – they will inevitably progress from the group... After the match, Koeman gave credit to the opposition: "The Hungarians played excellently, and we couldn't find free spaces between their lines. While we were figuring it out, they scored. But we kept calm, persevered, and managed to equalize."

In the Nations League, the Netherlands have not lost away for seven matches since their defeat to Portugal in June 2019. Their trip to the "Allianz Arena" could potentially end that streak, especially considering they will be without their defensive cornerstone. On the other hand, the statistics from recent matches between the Netherlands and Germany are generally favorable for the "Oranje": they have only lost to the Bundestim in two out of eight encounters.

Germany - Netherlands: Predicted Lineups

For the match against Hungary, Nagelsmann fielded Klein-Dienst and Undav in attack – fans probably couldn't have imagined such a forward pairing in the Bundestim. But what can one do when Musiala and Havertz are injured, and Füllkrug is still not dazzling at West Ham? As a result, Klein-Dienst seized his chance, while Burkhardt, who has started the season well at Mainz, also came off the bench. Both had their debuts for the national team. They are likely to get their minutes against the Netherlands as well.

As for the "Oranje," suspended van Dijk will definitely miss the Munich match, and he will likely be replaced by De Ligt, who played here last season for Bayern. The injuries to Nathan Aké and Jurriën Timber mean the Dutch have very few options for the left-back position, so it’s probable that Mickey van de Ven will start there. Additionally, they are without key players in midfield: Frenkie de Jong has long been absent, and there are also no Teun Koopmeiners, Yerdi Schouten, and Joey Veerman.

Germany - Netherlands: Author's Prediction

The match is likely to be filled with goals, so betting on "Both teams to score" and over 2.5 total goals can be made confidently. I recommend combining these bets to achieve a solid coefficient. The hosts are seen as the favorites of the encounter – their win (or not losing) paired with T.B. also seems quite tempting. However, the clean win for Germany is priced at 1.83, so one might not need to overthink it and simply believe in this outcome and take it as a single bet.