Canada – Iceland. Prediction and Match Preview

March 28, 2026 7:00 PM. Toronto. BMO Field

Friendly match

Canada vs. Iceland

Canada vs. Iceland: betting odds

At first glance, these two countries have little in common in the world of football. Apart from their northern location, where much of the territory is not suitable for year-round play. Canada is huge, Iceland is compact. Canada is located in North America, Iceland is in Europe. However, both countries once struggled to succeed in this sport. I would even say that it never really gained popularity. Today, football in Canada is experiencing an upswing, but still ranks third. In Iceland, handball dominates, while football fights for second place compared to other sports. However, both national teams have improved their game recently, capable of giving almost any opponent trouble.

They have met four times, all friendlies. Interestingly, Iceland has two wins, while the other two games ended in draws. So the Canadians have a chance to get their first win over this opponent. Bookmakers consider Canada the clear favorite, offering average odds for a win of about 1.55 - not too bad.

Canada

As you know, Canada is one of the hosts of the 2026 World Cup, along with the USA and Mexico, which automatically guarantees them a place. This is only their third participation in the tournament. The first two matches were unsuccessful: Canada has a record of six losses in six games and only two goals scored. They will face Qatar, Switzerland and the winner of the European play-offs in Path A. With this second UEFA team still to be determined, preparations are currently focused on Qatar and Switzerland. This makes Iceland an odd choice of sparring partner – from what I’ve seen, neither Qatar nor Switzerland play like the Icelanders. Perhaps they simply chose a reliable team that was available. Or perhaps it’s a matter of testing the formation and giving players a chance to run, rather than imitating certain styles. That’s also the right approach. Still, Canada’s preparation and results ahead of the tournament raise many questions. Many see them as a potential dark horse, but I don’t see any signs of that yet.

Iceland

Iceland missed the World Cup, but that’s not a shock. The real surprise would be qualification. Their current squad is not as strong as it was in the past, and a bit of luck has helped them to finish at least second in a group with Ukraine and France, and then chase a place in the playoffs. Notably, Iceland played a friendly against Mexico back in February, losing 4-0. Perhaps not all of their best talent was available, but Mexico's dominance was so striking that a 4-0 scoreline seemed almost merciful, given the flurry of shots on goal by Iceland. Now they are preparing for the Nations League and Euros, choosing tough opponents. They have already lost to one host in 2026; let's see how they perform against each other.

Canada vs. Iceland: Expected Lineups

Canada vs. Iceland: Author's Prediction

Iceland's main problem? They're conceding goals left and right. Take a look at their recent matches against heavyweights like France, Ukraine, and Mexico: 15 goals conceded in the last five (excluding Azerbaijan). So don't expect any miracles against Canada. I'd back over 2.5 goals.