Brazil vs Peru: Match Preview and Prediction

October 16, 2024. 03:45. Brasília. "Mané Garrincha".
World Cup 2026 Qualifiers. Round 10

Where to watch: MEGOGO, Volia TV

Injuries: Alisson, Vinícius Júnior, Bremer, Éder Militão, Guilherme Arana, Gabriel Martinelli (?) – Renato Tapia, Yoshimar Yotún, Gianluca Lapadula, Miguel Trauco, Anderson Santamaría

In the early hours of Tuesday into Wednesday, October 16, the South American qualifying match for the 2026 World Cup will see Brazil host Peru. Just days ago, Peru shocked everyone by defeating Uruguay (1:0), a team embroiled in internal strife, allowing them to rise from the bottom of the standings. The Seleção also managed a victory, narrowly defeating Chile 2:1 away from home. Interestingly, Brazil conceded the first goal in that match after just two minutes but equalized before halftime and clinched the win in the 89th minute.

Brazil

This victory was crucial for Brazil, much needed like air. Public sentiment, fanned by the media, was ready to tear into head coach Dorival Júnior for the team’s inadequate results. Hence, the win against a Chile side that has not been dazzling recently was nothing short of a godsend. Notably, both goals against the Chileans came from Botafogo players – forwards Igor Jesus and Luis Henrique. This shows that despite having a squad filled with stars from top European clubs, Brazil could only secure victory thanks to talents playing locally in Series A. Both players are 23 years old, with Henrique being the only one to have played in Europe, spending two years at Betis, scoring just one solitary goal in 47 La Liga appearances.

The trust that the national team coach has in homegrown players was even highlighted by the country’s president, Lula da Silva. "We must give chances to local players! I watched the match at home on TV and recognized only a few players in the national team. Meanwhile, those playing abroad are no better than those performing locally. I recently met with the head of our football federation and told him that I want to see the Brazilian national team composed entirely of players from our Series A. Yes, many Brazilians perform in Europe, but none of them are stars; there is no new Garrincha, nor a new Romário," said the president. Vinícius Júnior must have taken serious offense to these words...

Betting on Botafogo players will certainly earn Júnior certain respect (including perhaps among political circles), but he must continue this momentum by securing another win against Peru. In theory, this should be straightforward, especially at home: the Inca descendants, after defeating Uruguay, achieved only their first victory in the qualifiers (in their ninth match). They have no realistic chance of reaching the World Cup finals, whereas Brazil has climbed to fourth position. However, the Seleção themselves only have four wins in nine outings with four defeats – an unusual result that leaves everyone expecting nothing less than another three points from Dorival's men.

Peru

Peruans were fortunate that their encounter with Uruguay occurred amid scandal within the rival camp – Bielsa fell out with his team’s leaders (though this is nothing new for Marcelo). The Blanquirroja capitalized on the moment and beat the two-time world champions thanks to a last-minute goal from Portland Timbers defender Mikel Araujo in the 88th minute. This marked Peru's first qualifying victory in two years – since March 30, 2022, during the Qatar World Cup qualifiers. Peru also did not shine at the Copa America, earning only one point in their group (0:0 against Chile) and understandably exited without scoring a single goal. Currently, the team, led by Uruguayan Jorge Fossati, has three scoring strikes, not the worst result in the qualifiers. Paraguay has only managed two goals.

There are five points separating Peru from the intercontinental playoff zone, i.e., 7th place in the table. Honestly, I do not think Fossati’s team can overcome this gap. Yes, strange things happen in South America, but still, they need to improve their attacking and defensive game. Peru has conceded 10 goals, with only Bolivia and Chile letting in more. Furthermore, in their last four encounters against Brazil, Peru has failed to score, conceding eight: 0:1, 0:2, 0:1, and 0:4. The last time they emerged victorious against the Seleção was in a friendly match in September 2019, winning 1:0.

Brazil vs Peru: Predicted Lineups

It is expected that Brazil will field the authors of their recent goals – Botafogo representatives Igor Jesus and Luis Henrique – from the first minutes. The coach needs to meet the president's expectations and naturally field those inspired by recent success. Injury concerns remain for Vinícius Júnior, Alisson, Bremer, Éder Militão, and Guilherme Arana. Moreover, Gabriel Martinelli may also miss out due to a calf muscle swelling, casting doubt on his availability.

For Peru, key midfielders Renato Tapia and Yoshimar Yotún will be unavailable. Forward Gianluca Lapadula, along with defenders Miguel Trauco and Anderson Santamaría, will also miss the match.

Brazil vs Peru: Author's Prediction

The class and level of the teams are incomparable, hence it makes sense to bet on a calm and confident (as much as possible in the current state of the Seleção) victory for Brazil. I think a handicap of "-1.5" goals is achievable. The odds aren’t impressive, but it could be a sound single bet.