Benin vs Senegal: Match Preview and Prediction

December 30, 2025. 22:00. Tangier. Grand Stadium
African Cup of Nations. Group Stage. Group D. Round 3

Benin - Senegal

Where to watch: MEGOGO

Injured: I. Sarr (?) (Senegal)

Benin - Senegal: Betting Odds

The key group stage matches have arrived at AFCON-2025. In the third round of Group D, Senegal and Benin will meet in Tangier at the Grand Stadium. The Senegalese are leading the group, but nothing is decided yet - they share four points with DR Congo, who have the worst goal difference, while Benin is only one point behind. A miss could see Teranga Lions finish third in this quartet.

Benin

For a long time, Benin have been sidelined from major tournaments. The Cheetahs made their 21st century AFCON debut in 2004. Their first three finals appearances were disappointing, with just one draw in nine matches and an inevitable exit from the group stage. Their best performance came in 2019, when they qualified for the knockout stages for the first time and even made it one round to the quarter-finals. Interestingly, they achieved this without a single win: four draws and a defeat were their best moments in the tournament.

Since then, Benin have faded into the shadows, but have managed to return to Africa's elite, beating Rwanda in the tie-breakers and finishing second in AFCON qualifying. German coach Gernot Rohr has played a key role in the team's recent progress. He has worked exclusively with African national teams since 2010, leading Benin to their best ever World Cup qualification campaign in 2023. The Leopards fell just one point short of a place in the knockout stages, trailing South Africa and Nigeria on additional criteria. Benin have already reached a historic milestone in the tournament, ending a wait of more than 20 years for their first AFCON victory on 25 December thanks to Roche's goal against Botswana. The victory boosted their chances of reaching the knockout stages for the second time in their history, after a narrow defeat to DR Congo earlier in the campaign. Even a draw with Senegal in the final round could make Rohr's team one of the best third-placed teams.

In this match against the much more experienced Senegal, Benin will rely mainly on a solid defensive game. Their recent form looks balanced with three wins and three losses. However, defeats to Nigeria, Burkina Faso and DR Congo highlight the difficulties against the favourites. Benin have also struggled against Senegal historically, having only won once in their first meeting back in 1961, followed by two draws and seven defeats.

Senegal

Senegal started this Africa Cup of Nations with a successful run in qualifying for the 2026 World Cup. The Love Teranga will be taking part in the World Cup for the third time in a row, reflecting the steady growth of local football. Their highest achievement at AFCON remains the 2021 victory, although architect Aliou Cisse has since left the team. However, many of the experienced players from that triumph remain. This time, Senegal are aiming to progress beyond the round of 16, where they were eliminated in 2023. Strong performances in AFCON qualifiers and the World Cup under Pape Thiau suggest that this goal is realistic.

The start of their journey to the 2025 AFCON finals has inspired local fans, even if they have not achieved perfection. In the first match against Botswana, Senegal comfortably defeated 3-0, with Jackson scoring a brace as a star performer. The second game proved more difficult, requiring a comeback after an early defeat to DR Congo. Star forward Mane, currently outside Europe but still brimming with skill, equalised. A 4-1 goal difference and four points virtually guarantee Senegal a fifth successive play-off berth – even a defeat would likely see Thiau's side drop to third place. However, retaining top spot would provide a potentially easier path to the knockout stages.

That's within reach for Senegal, who have lost just one of their last eight matches in all competitions, with six wins and one draw, scoring 26 goals and conceding just five. That lone defeat came in November in a 2-0 friendly against Brazil at the Emirates Stadium. In official games, their last defeat was in the 2022 World Cup play-offs against England. They beat England in a friendly before AFCON, by the way. Senegal have not lost to African teams in regular time since March 2022, when Egypt beat them. At the last AFCON, they were eliminated in the round of 16 on penalties by eventual winners Côte d'Ivoire.

Benin v Senegal: Predicted Line-ups

Benin lost key player Utongi ahead of the tournament but otherwise have no squad issues. Senegal are doubtful for Ismaila Sarr, who left the field in the second half of their previous match. Elie Kamara and Assane Diao were ruled out before kick-off due to injuries.

Probable starting line-up for Benin:

Danginou; Urou, Verdon, Tijani, Roche; D'Almeida, Dodo, Imurane, Tosin, Olaytan; Muni

Senegal's possible starting lineup:

Mendy; Diatta, Coulibaly, Niahate, Jacobs; I. Geiye, P. Geiye, I. Ndiaye; I. Sarr, Mane, Jackson

Benin - Senegal: Author's Prediction

I expect a cautious match, as neither side has much reason to take a big risk, so one or two accurate shots could decide the outcome. A draw wouldn't surprise me, but the favorites should win - probably by a small margin.