Algeria – DR Congo: Prediction and Match Preview

January 6, 2026. 18:00. Rabat. Prince Moulay Hassan Stadium.
African Cup of Nations – 2025. 1/8 finals.

Algeria – DR Congo

Where to watch: MEGOGO

Perhaps the most competitive match in the first round of the CAN-2025 playoffs – the Feneks and the Congolese have scored sixteen points together in six group stage matches. Together with Nigeria, Algeria can boast three wins in three Group E games, and together with Senegal they have the best goal difference (7:1). In fact, it was thanks to the higher number of goals scored that Senegal ousted the Congolese in Group D, sending them to a match against Algeria, the team that occupies the third place in the overall ranking of African championships. Although, of course, the meeting of Algeria and Senegal directly in the 1/8 finals of the African Cup of Nations would be even more exciting!

Algeria - DR Congo: betting odds

Bookmakers do not see such a clear favorite in this match as, say, for Morocco, Nigeria and Egypt against Tanzania, Mozambique and Benin (whether these expectations were fully justified is another question). However, Algeria's chances of winning in regular time are estimated at a coefficient of just over 2 on the GGBET line, a draw after 90 minutes is just over 3, and a victory for Congo ranges from 4.30 to 4.5 - it cannot be called a sensation. Rather a surprise: judging by the odds for DR Congo to reach the quarterfinals, they are around 2.60, while the Feneks are given around 1.5.

Algeria

Why does the match between Algeria and Senegal in the playoffs look even cooler? It's simple: it was Senegal that the Feneks defeated twice by a small margin at CAN-2019 - in the group stage and in the final (and before that they beat Nigeria and Ivory Coast - in the main stage and on penalties). But the next two Africa Cups were a complete disappointment for Algeria: not a single victory in six (!) matches, both times finishing last in the group. In 2021, Ivory Coast took revenge (and Algeria also narrowly lost to Equatorial Guinea), and in 2023 they drew with Angola (1:1) and Burkina Faso (2:2), then narrowly lost to Mauritania (!) in the final round. So, Volodymyr Petkovic's team arrived in Morocco with the aim of rehabilitating themselves in front of their fans - with the headliner of the attack Riyad Mahrez (the only Algerian ambassador in the symbolic team of the CAN-2025 group stage) and the new goalkeeper - naturalized Luca Zidane (his father reviewed his saves in the first group stage match against Sudan - and celebrated his son's debut with a clean sheet!).

A strong start to the tournament - a very confident victory over Sudan with a score of 3:0 - gave Algeria new momentum. Then Petkovic's men narrowly defeated Burkina Faso (Riyad Mahrez converted a penalty, Luca Zidane scored his second in a row against a clean sheet, although he had little to do - only two saves). And the 3-1 victory against Equatorial Guinea in the final round was the result of rotation and fresh matches from the reserves. Ibrahim Maza scored a goal and provided an assist, Anis Hadj-Moussa provided two assists, but overall the Desert Warriors achieved their main goals: three points, first place in the group and maintaining strength in the starting lineup. Even funnier is that Algeria either fails or wins at the African Cup of Nations - until their triumph at CAN-2019, the Feneks had not advanced out of the group since 2010 (twenty years after their first trophy and title at CAN-1990). But considering that in the last six matches under the leadership of Vladimir Petkovic, they consistently opened the score, and then played until the result, the second scenario seems a little more likely. This Algeria is not a story of superstar quality (like the attack of Morocco or Nigeria) - it is a story of balance and stability in both attack and defense (of course, at the continental level).

DR Congo

If we talk about revelations and sensations at CAN-2025, then it is already a little difficult to include the Congolese there - after DR Congo barely lost to Côte d'Ivoire in the semi-finals of CAN-2023, and the hosts then sensationally (given their difficulties in the group stage) won the trophy and the title. Rather, now we can say that the Congolese have a certain stability and good quality of players, which allowed them to go through the group stage without serious problems. Having tied with Senegal (1-1), narrowly beating Benin and thrashing Botswana 3-0 in the final round, the Congolese finished second only because Senegal scored two more goals against Benin (although this humble team deserves full credit for holding Egypt to a draw in the main match, effectively limiting Omar Marmoush and Mohamed Salah). One of the architects of DR Congo's success is 49-year-old French coach Sébastien Desabres. Interestingly, his coaching career included a stint in Algeria. In general, Dezabr has traveled the world a lot – he exchanged modest French clubs for Angola and Uganda (his first experience playing in the national team!), led the leading Egyptian team Pyramids and the Moroccan club Wydad – it’s a pity that the match against the Feneks is not in Casablanca! He has been playing for the Congo national team since the summer of 2022 – hence the success at CAN-2023 and the current continental campaign, and in March DR Congo can secure a place at the 2026 World Cup in the intercontinental play-offs (if they defeat Jamaica or New Caledonia!). Currently, the Leopards’ unbeaten streak is eight matches, having conceded only twice! Moreover, in seven of these eight games, fewer than three goals were scored (so the defeat of Botswana is a certain anomaly). DR Congo plays on balance, in defense and thanks to the talent of the not very tall but experienced Lionel Mpasi in goal (it is interesting that the Congolese chose the 31-year-old goalkeeper of Le Havre as a starting player instead of the younger Mathieu Epolo from Standard or Timothy Fayyulu, whom Sion rented from Noah in Yerevan). At the same time, Sebastian Dezabre has a very solid attacking group at his disposal: in nine of the last ten matches in all tournaments they have opened the score - which to some extent unites the Congolese with the Algerians.

Algeria - DR Congo: Expected lineups

The Fennecs will definitely be without left-back Javad Khadjam (he injured his ankle in the match against Burkina Faso), but the most serious potential loss for Algeria is Ryan Ait-Nouri (the Manchester City left-back, who plays further up the attack for Algeria, was injured in the last match of the group stage). The Leopards have injured attacking midfielder Mario Stroykens from Anderlecht, and the left flank of defense remains unclear: if Arthur Masuaku does not recover from the injury he received in the match against Senegal (because of which he did not play against Botswana), Joris Kayembe will start the game in the back four for the second time in a row.

Algeria - DR Congo: author's prediction

Volodymyr Petkovic's team has a stellar attacking group: Riyad Mahrez and Ibrahim Maza (three and two goals respectively) will compete with Brahim Diaz for the Golden Boot of the tournament, the dangerous Hadj-Moussa and Amoura will lead the game, the excellent defensive duo of Bennacer-Budaoui - considering that the team's leaders were rested in the last round, Algeria can play from a strong position against the Congolese. Especially considering that the Feneks have not lost to the Leopards in five consecutive matches in all competitions (although the last three have been friendlies), DR Congo also has a solid attack, and their defense may not be worse than Algeria's. The conclusion is simple - of course, every team hopes to score first and then control the game. But since the quality of Algeria's defense is slightly behind their attack, it makes sense to assume that Sebastien Desabre's men will not leave the field without a goal. And the score 1:0 in either direction can turn into 1:1, so betting on both teams to score, which has a higher chance than the nominal home team winning, is a pretty good idea.